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Predictive Models for Chronic Diseases: Transforming Healthcare

A major healthcare transformation is in the works, considering the growing integration of the sector with cutting-edge technologies.

Along with data-driven insights and personalised medicine, there are other steps being taken for early detection of chronic diseases, such as the usage of advanced predictive models.

If implemented suitably, this could herald a mega healthcare revolution in the near future.

 Predictive analytics may become a tool for preventing chronic ailments, while enabling providers to swiftly detect early signs of ailments and intervene accordingly. Here is a closer look at these aspects.

1.What are disease prediction models?

Disease prediction models are essentially advanced predictive models that are deployed for early detection based on data-driven insights. Machine learning (ML) models help in the swift diagnosis of chronic ailments. Those suffering from the same usually require lifelong medical aid.

Here are a few other points worth noting in this regard: 

• Predictive models are now frequently deployed for the diagnosis and forecasting of such ailments. 
• Chronic diseases are also responsible for a big chunk of health costs worldwide. 
• AI is already enabling automated diagnosis systems and treatments for patients who require ongoing care. Higher AI usage in prescriptions also enables a sizeable chunk of these roles to be automated. 
• This saves time for medical experts to focus on various other crucial tasks. 
• Machine learning is usually categorised as supervised or unsupervised. It is used for determining complex models while extracting medical knowledge accordingly. It also helps expose various insights and ideas to practitioners and other specialists. 
• ML-based predictive models may also help in highlighting new regulations in decision-making that involves individual patient care. They may also autonomously diagnose various ailments based on clinical regulations. 
• By using ML models, the quality of medical information can also be enhanced while lowering fluctuations in patient rates and saving medical expenditure accordingly. 
• These models are increasingly being used for the investigation of diagnostic analyses in comparison to other regular mechanisms. 

2.What predictive models are used in healthcare?

1. Supervised Machine Learning Algorithm- 

• ML taps programmed algorithms which keep learning and optimising operations. 
• They do this through the analysis of input data for generating predictions within a certain range. 
• The more data you feed into the system, the more accurate the predictions. 
• They can be supervised, unsupervised, or semi-supervised algorithms.
• Labeled training datasets are initially used for training underlying algorithms which then feed on the unlabeled test dataset. 
• They then categorise the same into similar groups. 

2. Logistic Regression- 

• It is a supervised classification method which is an extension of the well-known regression method. 
• It can solely model a dichotomous variable that mostly represents an event’s non-occurrence or occurrence. 
• Logistic regression enables the discovery of the probability that any new instance belongs to any specific class. 
• Being a probability, the outcome is usually between 0 and 1.
•  Hence, there has to be a threshold assigned for the differentiation of two classes in order to use this as a binary classifier. 

3. Support Vector Machine (SVM)- 

• This algorithm helps classify both non-linear and linear information. 
• Every data item is mapped into the n-dimensional feature segment where the number of features is represented by n. 
• It will then discover the hyperplane separating the data items into two segments, while scaling up the marginal distance for both. It also minimizes errors in classification. 
• Marginal distance for any class is the one between the nearest instance and a decision hyperplane. The former will be a class member too. 

4. Decision Tree- 

• It models the logic behind decisions. 
• This is done through testing and corresponding various outcomes for the classification of data items within a tree-like format. 
• The nodes of the tree usually have numerous levels, with the topmost one being the root node. 
• Internal nodes (those with a child at least) are representative of tests on diverse attributes and input variables. 
• Based on the testing outcome, the algorithm for classification branches to the suitable child node where the branching and testing keeps repeating till it arrives at the leaf node. 
• The terminal or leaf nodes correspond to the outcomes of the decisions. 

5. Random Forest- 

• Random forest methods have multiple decision trees like a forest has numerous trees. 
• Various parts of RFs (random forests) are trained with different training dataset parts. 
• For new sample classification, the sample’s input vector is necessary for passing down with every decision tree in the forest. 
• Every decision tree will then take a different input vector part into consideration and generate a classification outcome. 
• The forest will then select the classification of possessing the highest votes or the average of the trees in the forest. 

6. Naïve Bayes- 

• It is a technique of classification based on the well-known Bayes’ theorem. 
• It may help describe event probability on the basis of prior knowledge of the conditions that are linked to the event in question. 
• The classification holds the assumption that any specific class feature is not related directly to any other feature. However, features for this class may have interdependence among each other. 

7. KNN (K-Nearest Neighbor)- 

• The KNN algorithm is a simple classification option that is a simpler version of the NB classifier. 
• It does not have to take probability values into consideration. 
• K is the count of the nearest neighbors that should be considered for taking the vote. A selection of varying values for the K may help in the generation of unique classification results for similar sample objects. 

3. What types of data are used in predictive models
for chronic diseases?

There are various kinds of data used by advanced predictive models for chronic ailments. Here are a few aspects worth keeping in mind: 

• Family history of the patient is vital for assessing potential risk factors for these ailments. 
• This may help predict which patients have higher risks for any disease and facilitate quicker intervention before the development of any issues. 
• It may involve the aggregation of data which is linked to several factors like the demographic and socio-economic profile, medical history, and comorbidities. 
• Medical history may also include blood glucose, blood pressure, age, family history of specific chronic ailments, and the levels of cholesterol. 
• Data on the social determinants of health is also useful for determining the likelihood of several ailments and treatment choices. 
• Other data include MRI (magnetic resonant imaging), social media, readouts, ultrasonography and electronically gained activity data. 
• Clinical and behavioral data may also be used for these purposes. 

FAQs

1.What are the potential benefits of using predictive models for chronic diseases in healthcare resource allocation?

Predictive models can help healthcare providers detect early signs of chronic diseases in patients based on diverse data points. At the same time, they can speed up early interventions and reduce the chances of disease contraction and fatalities with these insights. It will also reduce a major chunk of healthcare costs and resources allocated towards the treatment of these diseases.

2.How can predictive models contribute to cost savings in healthcare?

Predictive models can help save costs that are otherwise allocated for treating chronic ailments. Early detection of signs and vulnerabilities can help facilitate strategic interventions and medical advice that may prevent these diseases from occurring. Naturally, this helps reduce healthcare costs related to treatment and resource allocation.

3.How do predictive models improve their performance with time?

Predictive models keep enhancing their overall performance with the passage of time due to the nature of their algorithms. The more a provider feeds data into algorithms, the more the accuracy levels of predictive models. This helps in the generation of more accurate and helpful insights.

4.What are some of the challenges associated with implementing predictive models for chronic diseases?

Some of the common challenges associated with implementing predictive models for chronic ailments include poor data quality, insufficient data, issues with accuracy levels at times due to the complexity of medical data, and technological integration.